Q4 2025 Market Update

In a resilient fourth quarter, global markets once again highlighted the value of long‑term planning. Geneva’s Target Date Funds help participants remain steady through shifting conditions while benefiting from broad market strength.

The global markets in 2025, and particularly the fourth quarter, can most aptly be described as resilient. Despite persistent geopolitical risks, the “Liberation Day” trade policy shifts, and significant uncertainty surrounding both monetary and fiscal policy, virtually all major asset classes delivered positive returns for the year. The fourth quarter was marked by a 43-day government shutdown, delaying key economic data on inflation and labor. Still, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice as economic growth remained relatively strong at an estimated GDP rate of 2.7%.  This, along with the AI theme and strong corporate earnings, provided tailwinds for US Equities, as the S & P returned 2.7% for the quarter and over 17% for the year.

However, international equities largely outperformed, with EAFE and Emerging Markets (EM) delivering returns of 4.86% with 4.73% for the quarter, respectively. Emerging Markets was a top performer for the year, delivering 33.6% YTD.  International equity returns were broadly driven by improving economic growth and lower rates, strong earnings, and better relative valuations compared to US equities.

Turning our attention to Fixed Income, the Bloomberg Aggregate returned 1.1% for the quarter and 7.3% for the year, driven by two rate cuts and carry from elevated yields.

While 2025 has been another volatile year with multiple crosscurrents at play, it once again highlights the benefits of Geneva’s Target Date Funds that were able to capture the outperformance of international equities, especially emerging markets. Further, participants in nearer-dated Target Date Funds have a higher allocation to fixed income, capturing strong returns for the year, acting as a “ballast” stabilizing and anchoring returns while reducing risk for the overall portfolio. We encourage all participants to stay invested and allow the Target Date Funds to do their work through regular rebalancing as we navigate the uncertainty of changing markets.