Q1 2026 Market Update

The first quarter of 2026 was defined by heightened volatility as conflict in the Middle East drove rising rates, accelerating inflation, and pressure across both equity and fixed income markets. In this environment, Geneva’s Target Date Funds continued to demonstrate the value of a diversified, long-term approach.

Volatility intensified as energy supply disruptions pushed inflation higher and interest rates upward, both of which put downward pressure on stocks and bonds. These pressures contributed to sharp market swings throughout the quarter, reinforcing the importance of disciplined portfolio construction and risk management.

Global equities suffered their worst monthly decline in March since September 2022 as the MSCI ACWI saw a -7.2% return, and emerging markets returned -13.1%. For the quarter, however, non-US equities outperformed US equities. The MSCI ACWI ex US returned -.71% versus the S & P 500, which declined by -4.4%.

For Fixed Income, rates rose across the curve as the typical “flight to quality” that pushes yields down did not occur because the geopolitical crisis was fundamentally inflationary. Global bonds returned -3.1% and the Bloomberg Agg returned -.1% with US Treasuries declining -.04% for the quarter as the markets priced in zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. Credit spreads widened across Investment Grade and High Yield, but remain historically tight.

Against this backdrop, we see the benefit of Geneva’s customized Target Date Funds, which continue to endure the volatility of the markets. For our near-dated funds, there is a meaningful allocation to inflation-sensitive securities such as TIPS and stability of returns provided through an allocation to Stable Value. For our longer-dated funds, there is global equity exposure that captures the current outperformance of non-US equities versus US equities. Additionally, there is an allocation to private real estate, which serves as an inflation hedge and volatility dampener, reducing capture during periods of high market stress.

By combining thoughtful diversification, active risk management, and allocations designed to navigate inflation and volatility, Geneva’s Target Date Fund portfolios are built to help participants stay invested and on course—regardless of near-term market challenges.

Explore Geneva’s Fund Performance Reports online at genevabenefits.org/my-benefits.